By Spencer Marker
All my beliefs are based on the numbers that I share with you every month and I see them continuing to improve. It does not feel like the market is getting better every day but the truth is in the numbers. I believe that we will see the same trends continue as investors and first time buyers get into the market. This will keep the lower end of the market hopping. The higher end will continue to plod along but eventually we will see more and more move up buyers as the inventory gets gobbled up on the lower end. During the 4th quarter I do not see pricing changing significantly in the lower end and I expect to see some drops in the higher end of the market. There is surplus inventory in the higher end and those that have to sell will lead the market down in price. There is enough demand in the lower price ranges that will will probably not see that occur. All that being said there are some things that could set us back a bit. The first is the tsunami of foreclosures that the powers that be say is coming in the fourth quarter. I was one that underestimated the extent that the foreclosure mess was going to affect our market so I have to give credence to those that say this is coming because they were right last time. BUT, I do see our demand in our LOCAL market exceeding any other market in the country and I think these homes are getting sold now as short sales prior to them going to foreclosure. So, in the spirit of going "out on a limb" I am optimistic that we are through the worst of it and our market is strong enough to absorb what foreclosures we do get and not have them flood our market again. A lot of what is driving the 1st time buyers is the tax incentive of $8000 to buy your first home. That is slated to go away at the end of the year. It is an effective tool that is working so I would hope that it would be extended but you never know. Rising interest rates, more restrictive lending programs, inflation, even rising home values all could have an effect on our marketplace but I do not see that happening. Our local economy is strong and getting stronger, our unemployment is one of the lowest in the nation and we are one of the best areas for job creation. I am confident that the worst days are behind us and we are moving forward. As our market continues to unfold I will as usual keep you informed.

2009-08-14T16:47:00.000-07:00

Front Lines

Ok, it is official, we have just finished the July stats and we have now seen 12 straight months of improving market conditions. It may not seem that way but it's true. The town home market is on fire and our inventory is turning over every 2 weeks. We currently have 51 town homes on the market and we sold 103 in the month of July. Great numbers! We are seeing fewer homes coming on the market, which in this market means we are getting fewer foreclosures listed than last year in the corresponding months. The percentage of available properties that are "distressed" sales has dropped to around the 30% mark, which while is not great is better than the 70% mark we had seen. Certainly a vast improvement. We are seeing multiple offers on all the best values and this means that in many cases the prices have escalated up over the list price so as those homes close it should start to affect our pricing in a positive way. The single family sector is not doing a swell as the town home market but it is doing better than the previous years and continues to improve. There are currently 48 homes available and we sold 33 in the month of July. In other words we are turning that inventory over every 6 weeks or so. The under 500K price range is where all the action is and the over 700K market is the slowest of the categories. There has been increased activity in the higher ranges primarily driven by relocation but with the town home market moving so quickly there are finally some move up buyers back in the market. Appraisals continue to be the biggest hurdle as they (and the lenders)fail to recognize that our market has "bounced". By bounced I mean we have hit bottom and bounced back up to more realistic numbers for our area. New appraisal guidelines, while well intended and frankly a good idea, are just not being implemented properly. Until this is worked out it will continue to be a challenge and effect pricing. After all is said and done, though, our market is doing okay; homes that are priced competitively, in good condition and on a nice lot are selling quickly. Homes that are not, don't. If you are on a bad lot then you cannot ask what a home on a good lot is getting. If you have deferred maintenance (poor condition) then you cannot sell for what a a home in good condition is getting. If you do not have the same features as other homes in your price range then you must complete in a lower price range. At the end of the day price cures all ills. Banks know this, which is why foreclosures sell for less than the rest of the market and as long as there is nothing pushing the buyer to buy and there are plenty of homes to choose from buyers are only cherry-picking. Buyers are still controlling the market although that is changing in the lower price ranges. I will, as usual, keep you informed as our market continues to unfold.

The Front Line

2008-12-01T07:10:00.000-08:00

Okay folks, things are not as bad as the press is making them out to be, in the Centreville market anyhow. The number of available single family homes is at it's lowest point since January of 07! The number of single family homes sold in September (and August for that matter) are double what they were last year. All year long they have been very consistent with the 06 and 07 so I expect that to continue. The town home market is doing even better than I think that has helped in the single family homes numbers noticeably. The total number of available townhomes for sale has decreased for the 5th straight month and is almost half of what we had available September 07. In September the total number of townhomes that came under contract is more than DOUBLE what we sold last September. All year long our sales have surpassed last year's. the number of homes in Centreville that are in foreclosure or short sale status is down from the 1st quarter of the year in almost every category and has remained consistent of the past few months. This is important in that finally some of the non-bank owned homes are able to sell and those folks can move up with in the community. When a bank home sells it simply takes a home off of the banks books, when an owner occupied home sells it creates other transactions up the line as they buy another home and then that person can buy another home, etc., etc. Certainly consumer confidence is an issue but once people realize that the national numbers are far worse than our local numbers. You will see that confidence return. By the time the media is willing to report that home prices are rising the trend in this area will have been on the upswing for months!! That's why we call this column "Front Lines", because we are on the front lines of the local real estate and we will keep you informed with what is happening today.

Beware The “Short Sale”

2008-02-21T07:12:00.000-08:00

If you have been looking at the real estate market lately then you have seen the term "short sale." A short sale happens when an owner can no longer make their payments on a home and the sales price of the home is not sufficient to cover the costs of fully paying off all the liens on the home.

In certain circumstances the lender will agree to accept a payoff for less than what is owed and forgive the rest of what is owed on the mortgage. The key words here are "certain circumstances". The seller must be in default and the seller must meet rigid financial guidelines. If the seller is not in true financial distress and is just simply not making payments then odds are they will not be approved for s short sale. In fact less than 20% or so of short sale applicants do get approved and the process can take weeks if not months to negotiate.

While many homes are advertised as short sales and look very attractive in pricing they are in reality not going to qualify and odds are they will be foreclosed on before the process can be completed. In addition these homes are often in disrepair as any one that cannot make their payment typically cannot afford maintenance costs and they are sold as-is. Bottom line is that while they look enticing on paper they are always frustrating and typically a fruitless waste of time.

Fed's Rate Cut

2008-01-22T12:47:00.000-08:00

We wanted you to be the first to know that this morning the Fed lowered the discount rate by ¾ of a percent. This is the rate that has a direct impact on mortgage rates. We expect this change to have a substantial impact on the real estate market. Already today we have seen one lender offering 5 ½ % rates with no points! We look for even more aggressive pricing as the day progress’s.

Last July when the sub prime market crashed it “froze” our market leaving many sellers lowering their prices below actual market value and creating a lot of “low hanging fruit”. We expect that the Fed lowering the interest rates will jump-start our spring market early. The lower rates and the “low hanging fruit” mean unprecedented opportunities for the “early bird” buyers.

We have all been reading tales of doom and gloom regarding our real estate market and, it certainly has been better for buyers than sellers. However, while 2007 was certainly no 2004, it was still the 4th best year on record for real estate sales.

Our thinking is that this action may be politically motivated meaning that these lower rates may not be around for long. In addition, the “low hanging fruit” we spoke of will be plucked off the market quickly by savvy buyers. Bottom line, those that act early will reap the greatest rewards.

Spencer

P.S. More good news – Northern Virginia is ranked #3 for new jobs created in the nation – this is what sustains our local market and why our market does not feel anywhere near the pain that other states are feeling. Real Estate is a local business!

We update our local market stats monthly as we compile the information – check them out on our website under Local Information/Stats

The Year In Review

2008-01-14T04:57:00.000-08:00

What a year we had in 2007. The first half of the year was a definite improvement over 2006 as far as the number of listings that were selling. By all early indicators 2006 was going to be the bottom of the market and we were on our way up. Inventory was shrinking monthly and was 20-25% below 2006 levels. Each month we were selling the exact same or slightly more than we did in the same month in 2006. So our number of sales rose slightly in the first half but our percentage of listings sold rose noticeably.
All that came to an abrupt end in July when the sub prime mess rose it’s ugly head. Inventory spiked, sales dropped, contracts fell out, lenders disappeared and consumer confidence hit rock bottom.
By October though the shock had worn off and our number of single family home sales came back into line with last years numbers although townhomes were still down by 25-30%. This is based on Centreville stats only. This varies by county and varies within the county. (We post all the stats monthly on our web site so you can review by area by visiting www.seln4u.com.)
The average LIST PRICE for ALL single family homes sold in CENTREVILLE in 2007 dropped to 602,293 from 663,621 in 2006. For ALL townhomes it dropped to 366,140 in 2007 from 391,827 in 2006. The total number of townhomes that came under contract in 2007 dropped to 648 from 826 in 2006 and 1,278 in 2005. The number of single family homes that came under contract actually increased to 279, up from 271 in 2006 but down from 434 in 2005.
The average number of single family homes that were available on the market in 2007 dropped (this is a good thing) to 151 from 172 in 2006 but still was almost double 2005’s number of 78. Townhomes did not fair quite as well averaging 274 active listings in any given month in 2007, down from 293 in 2006 but more than double the 127 in 2005. The real disparity comes in how we begin the year in 2008. With single family homes we are starting the year with 128 active listings up only slightly from the 118 of 2007 and 112 of 2006. Townhomes however are starting with 255 active listings compared with 153 in 2007 and 170 in 2006. This is primarily due to the changes in mortgage lending and availability of no money down loans and a higher percentage of foreclosures than in single family homes. Again these numbers are for Centreville only and we will not have the overall Northern Virginia Stats available until next issue. We will post them on our website as soon as we have the information properly formatted.
Overall 2007 will go down as the 4th best year on record at the NVAR and while it did not seem like it the only reason for that was that it is compared to 2003-2005. We sold all of the homes we listed (excluding those we still have on the market) and our days on market averaged just under 41. As this year unfolds we will continue to keep you informed.

Fair Market Value

2008-01-02T12:07:00.001-08:00

What is the best price for a piece of real estate? Mortgage lenders, appraisers, and real estate brokers use what is called the "fair market value" (FMV). FMV has been defined as "the price that a buyer is willing to pay and the seller is willing to accept, when both parties are knowledgeable about the property and neither is under any time pressure to buy or sell". Sounds great, but how is this price determined? The starting point for determining a fair price may be an opinion of the value or "comparative market analysis". Such an analysis uses information on similar properties which are: 1) currently for sale, 2) already sold, or 3) expired properties (those which did not sell). Local, national and international trends and market conditions must also be evaluated.By comparing similar properties in each of the three categories and the market conditions, appraisers, lenders and agents come very close to the maximum price that buyers would be willing to pay for a house.

Diamond In The Rough

2008-01-02T11:54:00.001-08:00

There are a lot of "diamonds in the rough" for sale. A property with incredible potential may be in a great location, have large sunny rooms and a big yard, but it may also have dated wall paper, worn carpeting, and uninspired bathrooms. If you can look beyond the surface, you may see a house that could be transformed by a little "elbow grease", paint, and new carpets. A house that is structurally sound with all the systems in good condition may be only a few cosmetic repairs away from being fantastic! A home that does not show well is usually priced accordingly. If the price doesn't reflect the condition of the house, the seller may be more willing to negotiate than a seller who has made a considerable investment in preparing a home for the market.Bring your imagination with you on your next house hunting trip! You may be pleasantly surprised to find a diamond in the rough.

Weatherproof Your Home Outdoors

2007-11-16T10:47:00.000-08:00

Clean gutters. This will help prevent rotted wood. If you are uncomfortable standing on a ladder, hire someone. Cost: $50 to $100 per cleaning
Check your roof every two to three years. You can pay a roofer to inspect and repair the metal flashings, problem shingles and cracked seals around vents. Or do it yourself with a caulking gun and silicone sealant for less than $10.
If necessary, a professional should replace flashing or shingles.
Remove leaves and sticks from the roof to prevent rot and eventual water leakage.
Cover your air conditioner. Protecting it from the elements in the cold months will extend its life. Covers, sold at hardware stores, are available for window and central-air units. Cost: About $15 for window units . . . more for central air-conditioning units.
Reseal your asphalt driveway. Sealant keeps water from seeping into the asphalt, causing it to crack and crumble when water freezes and expands.
Reseal your driveway every two years – more often if it becomes dull gray instead of shiny black. This takes three to four hours. Cost to hire a professional: $150 to $300 for a standard driveway.
In warmer climates, the sun deteriorates the surface. So even if you live in a climate that stays above freezing, reseal the driveway every four to five years.
Aerate your lawn. An aerator looks like a push lawn mower with spikes instead of blades. It removes plugs of grass and soil and distributes them on the surface of the lawn, allowing rain to penetrate the ground.
Result: A healthier lawn in the spring.
It only takes about a half-hour to aerate an average lawn. Go in with some neighbors and rent an aerator for $80 to $100 for eight hours. Or pay a professional to do it. Cost:$80 to $120.Trim tree branches and bushes so they don’t touch your house or roof. Wind can cause branches to scratch away paint and/or roofing material, inviting mold and wood

Weatherproof Your Home Indoors

2007-11-16T10:44:00.000-08:00

Weatherproof Your Home
A Checklist for Owners

Winter is only a few months away. Spending a few dollars and hours now on home maintenance will help to avoid expensive repairs and save on heating bills over the winter months!
Check window and door seals. Air leaks mean higher heating bills. Refasten loose weather-stripping. To replace stripping, purchase a weather-stripping kit. Cost: Less than $10 per opening.
Deep-clean carpets. When the windows are closed, kicked-up dust will recirculate in the air. Renting a carpet cleaner costs $20 to $30 per day, plus about $15 for cleaning solution.
Clean the furnace. This is important for furnace efficiency – whether it burns oil or gas.
Have your furnace professionally inspected and cleaned every fall. Cost: $50 to $100.
Also change the furnace filter two or three times per year (actual frequency depends on the climate in your area). Filters are located before the cold-air return, usually on the side of the furnace. If you’re not sure how to do it, ask a technician to show you. Standard filters cost about $1 each.
If you have a humidifier next to your furnace: Make sure the technician changes the pads at the annual inspection. Clean pads improve efficiency and prevent dirty air from circulating.

Centreville's November Update

2007-11-16T10:40:00.000-08:00

October's numbers show some improvement with the number of properties coming on the market decreasing and the number or properties selling increasing somewhat. We continue to see many good signs in the market which bode well for the coming months. Once again, prices for "have to" sell homes continue to drive the market as they vie for a limited number of buyers.
The number of properties available at end of October is down from September with the exception of townhomes under $300,000 which was up, and garage townhomes which remained even. Overall, both townhomes and single family inventory was down from September levels. We currently have 325 townhomes (down from last month's 333) and 162 active single family homes (down from 182 in September).
We had 80 townhomes come on the market during the month of October with an average list price of $354,954 compared with 96 listed in September with an average list price of $379,269. For single-family homes we had 40 come on the market in October at an average list price of $585,386. In September 51 listed with average list price of $639,796. Last year for October there were 53 single family homes listed at an average list price of $671,313 and 87 townhomes were listed at average list price of $390.101.
This year in October 34 townhomes sold at an average list price of $356,135 compared with last year when we sold 47 at average list price of $358,100. For single-family homes 26 sold this October with an average list price of $553,050 compared to last year when 12 sold with an average list price of $675,241.
Our current absorption rate for single-family homes is 6 months (meaning at the current sales pace, it would take 6 months, compared to 13 last year at this time - and last month at this time - for all of the current inventory to sell) Keep in mind that this speaks to current inventory and does not take into account additional inventory that will be coming on over the coming months. For townhomes the current absorption rate is 10 months (even with 10 months last month). For last year at the same time our absorption rate for townhomes was 6 months.
Our local economy remains strong, even with some small ups and downs in interest rates they continue at historic lows and serious sellers continue to price their homes aggressively - it to be a great time to be a buyer. Whether you are a buyer or seller, making decisions on how to proceed in this market can be daunting. It is more important than ever to be working with an agent who has the experience and knows how to guide you through the dangers and pitfalls of the coming months. Marketing, staging and pricing are key considerations for every seller. After 22 years of selling real estate in Centreville you can be confident that we have the experience to help you win in this kind of market. If you are thinking of moving now or in the future give us a call today and see why our buyers and sellers have a "Distinct Advantage."

A Few Points About Interest Rates

2007-11-16T10:30:00.000-08:00

Less is more
If you're new to investing or real estate and don't know the first thing about interest rates, here's a good tip: the higher the interest rate, the more expensive it's going to be. High interest rates mean you will have to pay back more on the money you borrow. Another good rule of thumb is that affordability increases if you use an adjustable rate mortgage (it's easier to qualify this way). Of course, there will be a wide range of prices that you can choose from, depending on what kind of financing you choose..
Not even the Fed knows for sure
The Fed holds a considerable amount of power, but they can't control everything. Mortgage interest rates are affected by many unpredictable political, economic and social events. So there is no guarantee what direction interest rates will go, despite the forecasts of the experts. Therefore, make your financial decision based on where things are today including your budget, your needs and your future plans.
Locking in rates assures your lowest interest
If you do decide you want to lock in at a certain interest rate, you will need to complete a loan application and send it to your lender as soon as possible. This must be done so that your commitment doesn't run out before your loan is approved. Follow up and be sure that the lender is receiving all of the necessary documentation. Get a property appraisal, which usually costs about $300, through your loan agent as soon as possible.
Don't obsess and miss a good real estate deal
Although rising interest rates can create more problems for home buyers, waiting and hoping for lower rates is not necessarily a smart move. You may end up paying a higher price – and our current rates are still at historic lows. Also, refinancing is always an option in the event that interest rates come down.

Easing The Transition To Your New Home

2007-11-16T09:35:00.001-08:00

For Your Family's Safety and Comfort

Teach your children your new address. let them practice writing it on packed cartons.

You can lighten your load and reduce any storage space you need to rent by hosting a garage or yard sale.

Fill two "Open Me First" cartons containing snacks, instant coffee or tea bags, soap, toilet paper, toothpaste and brushes, medicine and toiletry items (make sure caps are tightly secured), flashlight, screwdriver, pliers, can opener, paper plates, cups and utensils, a pan or two, paper towels, and any other items your family can't do without. Ask your van foreman to load one of these boxes so that it will be unloaded at your new home first. Why the second box? In case the movers are delayed getting to your house on the day of the move.

Keep your pets out of packing boxes and away from all the activity on moving day.

Let all your electrical gadgets return to room temperature before plugging them in.

Easing The Transition To Your New Home

2007-11-16T09:12:00.000-08:00

Use The Right Boxes - And Pack Them Carefully

Professional moving companies use only sturdy, reinforced cartons. The boxes you can get at your neighborhood supermarket or liquor store might be free, but they are not nearly as strong or padded, and so can't shield your valuables as well from harm in transit.
Use sheets, blankets, pillows and towels to separate pictures and other fragile objects from each other and the sides of the carton. pack plates and glass objects vertically, rather than flat and stacked.
Be sure to point out to your mover the boxes in which you've packed fragile items, especially if those items are exceptionally valuable. The mover will advise you whether those valuables need to be repacked in sturdier, more appropriate boxes.
The heavier the item, the smaller the box it should occupy. A good rule of thumb is if you can't lift the carton easilty, it's too heavy. Label your boxes, especially the one containing sheets and towels, so you can find everything you need the first night in your new home.

All Agents Are Not Created Equal

2007-11-16T08:58:00.000-08:00

Not all agents or companies are created equal!! In the strong market we just went through getting the home under contract was not the problem. Getting the best terms and highest dollar was the most important factor. Many agents were successful just due to the fast pace of the market. Now that things are more competitive it is different, very different.
We see agents putting in listings without putting in the school information or in some cases the wrong schools. Wrong subdivisions are listed more frequently than you can imagine especially in subdivisions such as Virginia Run where the neighborhood name is different in the tax records. Knowing correct information is a basic consideration but there are others.
A good agent should tell you what you need to hear and not just what you want to hear -especially regarding condition and price. They should have a clear strategy, an understanding of the marketplace, an advertising budget and ideally a proven track record. This is important in getting the best terms and most money but it is also paramount in just getting your home sold.
I know this sounds like shameless self-promotion (and basically it is!!) but it is also based on a desire to educate the consumer as to what to look for. Those properties that sell for less because of misinformation become bad comps for the rest of us. While I may like to think I am the best choice in real estate there re other good agents out there as well. As a consumer educate yourself on what to look for in a listing agent.
Call our office and we will be happy to send you a copy of "Questions to Ask Your Agent" (and yes, we have all the right answers) and we can send you a DVD on "How to Prepare Your Home for Sale" prepared by Tony Randall

Out On A Limb

2007-11-16T08:56:00.000-08:00

Over the next couple of months I expect to see buyers get some of the best bargains we have seen in quite some time. Sellers fear of the unknown, relocation bail outs and some very motivated sellers combined with lots of inventory to choose from set the stage for buyers to reap the rewards in the market place. Smart buyers will pluck off the low lying fruit before the new year begins.
As we enter 2008 I look to see seller confidence lead to a leveling out in the pricing as the Spring market begins to unfold. Rates are a big unknown but I do not look for them to fluctuate much either way. It is not worth waiting to potentially get a lower rate nor is it worth compromising on your home selection because you think rates will go up. As you read the news if you see inflation frequently then rates will most likely stay stable or go up, if you see recession then rates will most likely go down. Either way I do not expect to see much fluctuation in mortgage rates. I do look for the conforming loan limit to be increased which will help our market tremendously and I look hopefully for changes to FHA and VA loans loan limits as well. Both of those programs saw limited usage in the last few years as Wall Street entered the mortgage market with 100% financing and low doc loans. (That is what got us into the position we are in) Now that they are out of our market we will see a resurgence in that type of financing.
We will see more foreclosures come into the market but we are also seeing lenders move aggressively to avoid having to take a home to foreclosure. They are restructuring loans and lowering rates, forgiving debt, re-amortizing for longer time frames and basically working with those home owners who want to keep their home. I also see banks moving to different selling strategies such as auctions so we may not see our inventory swell by as much as it could.
It is an election year so that will affect our marketplace somewhat but I will go into that more in January. Generally the pluses equal out the minus’s though. I do see positive growth in our job market and I do see lots of buyers searching on the web. I also have seen a little spurt of home buying in October making up for the slower times in August & September. I look for 2008 to not be a whole lot different than 2007. It was a great year for our team! I expect the sales to stay steady through Spring as well as the pricing. For sellers it will mean that you must have your home in great condition, priced competitively and aggressively marketed. For buyers, the best values are right now and those that pluck this low lying fruit will win.

Front Line

2007-11-16T06:56:00.000-08:00

FRONT LINE

This used to be called Market Watch but we changed the name to reflect how current the information really is. What we write about in this column is happening this week in our local market. It is not based on last month's or last quarter's statistics or what is happening in California or Georgia. It is information from the front lines of our local market. The market in 07 has certainly been different from past years.
At years end 2007 will rank as the 5th best year ever, behind 03,04,05 & 06. That is based on the total number of sales during the year. Our market has been better this year though than last as our inventory was down by 20-25% for both single family and town homes until August. That means a higher percentage of existing inventory was sold this year compared to last year. Pricing was down 5-10% depending on the month and category of home compared to last year. We saw significant drops this year in May-June and again in Aug-Sept , same as we had last year. This is due to sellers reacting to the transition from Spring to Summer markets and Summer to Fall markets. Pricing drops as those that have to sell jump out in front so they do not miss the next spurt of sales.
In August though things took a dramatic turn for the worse as we saw the collapse of the sub prime market. This affected our market in a number of different ways. First, a large segment of our buyers we no longer able to get a loan as the stated income and Alt-A financing disappeared entirely. ( these were loans that catered to those with credit dings or other qualifying problems) 100% financing was cut way back as well, as the qualifying requirements became way more restrictive. Second, our market was flooded with foreclosures. This is what caused the financing to disappear in the first place as those that had obtained this type of financing defaulted by the score. In Centreville 17+ percent of the homes that are listed are in foreclosure, are owned by a relocation company or are offered as a short sale, meaning that more is owed than they can sell the home for.
In Prince William County the numbers are much, much higher plus there is builder competition. This not only bumps our inventory back up but brings some very motivated sellers (and hence lower pricing) to the market.
Lastly, consumer confidence drops as buyers adopt a wait and see attitude to the market. Lots of lookers but few buyers as they wait to see signs of the bottom or are just too scared to buy until pricing bumps back up. The winners in today’s market will be those that buy in the next couple of months. In January we will look back on 2007 as a whole and go Out on a Limb and tell you what to expect for the coming year.

March Update

2007-03-08T11:31:00.000-08:00

The stock market is doing well overall, interest rates are fantastic, consumer confidence is increasing and Virginia has one of the strongest job markets in the nation. There is no reason for 2007 to not be a great year for real estate. Housing inventory is at much more realistic levels compared to 2006. Those sellers that are in the market are fully aware of market conditions and not caught by surprised like some sellers in 2006. Buyers are taking advantage of the pricing corrections and all of the other positive factors in today’s market and they are very active. YTD the market has been very strong. There is no reason for that not to continue. Once the ice is gone and warmer weather appears sold signs should pop up everywhere just as they did in the warmer weather in January. Overall I look for 2007 to be a strong year with some appreciation in the spring months and flat in the last half of the year. I expect buyer demand to be greater than 2006 and the wild card is the amount of inventory that will come on the market. I do not expect to see the same amount of inventory in 07 that we had in 06. The “flippers” and the new home “specs” are gone from the market. Many of the slated condo projects are now going to remain apartments and may of the sellers who were in the market just to “catch the wave” before it was gone are out of the market. Many of the sellers who rented their homes because they could not sell it may be back but they will not be here this spring as they are stuck in 12 months leases and most only rented when the spring market was over. In 2006 every other home was a vacant house as the sellers got caught in the transitional market. (They must not read this blog!) Most of those vacant homes are now gone and the sellers currently in the market know what to expect and they have staged their homes and priced accordingly. These homes are selling. There are a fair number of foreclosures in the market; something we have not seen in the last 5 years and more will be coming. Same with relocation listings. These will have an effect on the market as they primarily compete on price. We will have to watch this trend. Overall I expect 2007 to be a great one, more in balance with opportunities for everyone.

2007-01-18T05:40:00.000-08:00

Welcome! I have created this blog as a way of communicating directly with you regarding real estate in our area. I will be posting to the blog regularly with information about our market - changing trends, good or bad signs, area information and more. Please feel free to post any questions or comments you may have and I will respond to them quickly!