Out on a Limb

Our inventory for the most part has remained consistent for the last 3 months and unless the banks dump a huge batch on us we should see it shrink further in the next couple of months. As is typical in this time frame the folks that only "want to sell" but do not "need or have to sell" are dropping out of the market. Most will come back on the market in the Spring when there is a little more optimism in the market. Those that "have to sell" always dominate the market in this time frame as they do what it takes to get their home sold and that means dropping their price. This forces out the "want to sells" as they just can't or won't compete. The "need to sells" hang tough but typically can't compete unless they have some exceptional feature. That being said, inventory is dropping and consumer confidence is building. There is some urgency being created by the uncertainty of the extension of the first time buyers tax credit and by the fact that some of the higher loan limits are disappearing in the neat future. Good properties that are selling especially in the lower price ranges although I do look for that to slow somewhat between now and the beginning of the year. For buyers, your choices are getting slimmer and on those good properties or good values there is competition. This is the time though to get a good value especially in the higher ranges as those that are on the market are typically motivated to get their home sold, not in every case but in many of the cases. I look for values to remain steady for the balance of the year. in 2010 I look to see a stronger market that continues to improve. It will be a good market and if we can avoid the foreclosure influx it has the potential to be great. Not a 2003, but an improvement for sure.

Front Lines

Well, the weather has gotten cold but the market has warmed up a bit. Fair amount of activity although it remains in the lower price ranges. There is a little activity and it is slowly moving up through the price ranges. We put a nice property on the market at $550,000 (which the seller and I agreed was a stretch in looking at the comps) on a Friday and got a darn good offer on Sunday. Home inspection is done and we are all wrapped as of Thursday. We have another home that we feel is very well priced at $599,900 and there are no lookers at all. Go figure. We were recently at the NVAR Convention and it was a common theme that inventory was getting very difficult to find in the $500,000 and under category which is a bump up from the $400,000 and under of previous months. Town home inventory has dropped just a tad and the number of sales has increased from last month and both categories are significantly improved from the same month last year. however, if you look at the average number of sales per month for the same time frames it is exactly the same at 30 sales per month, so some of the buyers that bought earlier in the year are buyers that typically would have waited. How is that for looking at the glass half full?! The number of new listings coming on is substantially lower this year for single family homes as well as for town homes. Not much different this month from last month the the exception that the number of distressed properties in the $500K to $700K range tripled since last month. I do not read much into that short of how it played out this month. We still are not seeing a significant jump in new foreclosure activity and that is certainly something we are watching closely. Let's hope it stays that way. As our market continues to unfold, I will as usual keep you informed