Out on a Limb

Numbers have slowed a bit and I look for that to continue as we move into the fall market. There are pockets of strong activity and multiple offers are out there in some price ranges and on some exceptional properties but it is not the norm at the moment. I do not see us dropping off a precipice but I do see the market cooling a bit. Seasonal factors come into play and they are exacerbated by election year jitters. Consumer confidence which has been surprisingly strong all year will hopefully continue after a brief pause. The numbers have been strong all year and in looking at them there is no reason to see anything but continued improvement. As we move into the new year, no matter which party is in office, there will be concerns as budgetary issues become a topic of conversation. That has a greater impact on our area than anywhere else in the country and this will directly influence consumer confidence locally. Let’s hope there is nothing to be concerned about and that I am looking at the half empty glass. The real truth in my opinion lies in the numbers and we will keep a careful watch on them. I am paying special attention to the townhome market right now as it is primarily first time buyers and investors. I am wary as we have seen inventory increase and contracts drop off in some sectors of that market. Rates are still low, even after a bit of upwards creep over the last few weeks. Rents have crept up over the last few years and now it is cheaper to buy than it is to rent in many cases. Also we have had folks buy homes that sold their homes short just a few years back so lenders are loosening up just a tad. That means that there is a large market of future homeowners not buying their first homes but rather coming back into the market after getting out. Lots of factors out there that can influence our market in the coming months and I will as usual keep you informed.

Front Lines

As we enter our fall market, the numbers are looking good although things have slowed a bit.  Townhome inventory has crept up to 61 in July and now 65 in August.  This is the high water mark for the year and up noticeably from the 49 available in June.    The good news is that it is less than the 78 we had last August. The number of townhomes that came under contract is the bad news as it continues to decline from 68 in June to 54 in July to only 41 in August.   This is also well below the 68 we sold last August.  This is the first time we have sold less than the amount of existing inventory in a month since January.  Typically we are seeing inventory drop as we enter the fall, not increase so this will be something that we will need to watch.   There is good news in that the average list price of the townhomes that have come under contract so far in 2012 is $301,268 up from $288,486 in July.  Average Days on Market is still a strong number improving from 29 in July to 23 in August, also better than the 35 in August of 2011.   Single Family home sales were similar statistically.  Single Family inventory dropped from 56 in June to 48 in July to 45 in August.  The number of sales continued to decline from 39 in June to 36 in July to only 20 in August.  The only two months where we have had fewer single family homes sell were January and February.  It is typical to see inventory drop as we head into the fall market but usually we see a little more activity right before school starts.  The average LIST price of the homes that came under contract for YTD 2012 stands at $532,116 which is up from $502,725 last year and is the highest number since 2007.  Average Days on Market did continue to increase from 23 in April, 32 in May, 43 in June and 43 in July to 48 in August.   Year to Date 2012 has been a good year for real estate in Centreville; we have seen appreciation and over all the numbers look good.  New homes sales are robust and builders are moving forward with confidence.  There is construction and ground breaking going on everywhere you look.  Foreclosure and short sale activity is still out there but not at numbers that we have seen in past years and not at numbers that should have a noticeable impact.  I think things have paused as election year jitters have finally taken a hold and because activity typically slows a bit in the fall anyhow.  As our market continues to unfold, I will, as usual, keep you informed.