Front Lines

What can I say about 2009 except that I am glad it is behind us. The market was consistent and showed a slow but steady improvement. It was, though, a year filled with challenges. Financing guidelines changed constantly; appraisals were neither accurate nor timely' foreclosures and short sales dominated the marketplace' banks set their own rules; title companies were bogged down and under staffed; and , well, you get the picture. I would have to say that when the smoke clears we will recognize the bottom of the marketplace as having occurred in March of 2009. Improvement in the market actually started June of 2008 but March of 2009 was when the turnaround took hold. In certain sectors of the market we have seen a 10%-17% "bump" in pricing as buyers compete for limited inventory. This is where pricing got lower and lower and lower until finally buyers started flocking into the market and created a "bounce." This is most evident in the townhome market where multiple offers and are the rule of the day. As the year progressed we have seen this level of activity work it's way up through the different pricing points and while it has not yet reached the highest end, I expect to see that change. Consumer confidence played the biggest part in this as buyers finally decided that they needed to get in the market or miss the opportunities it offers. Many did miss it as all cash investors bid up properties and first time buyers found they could not compete. We had one client that we wrote 12 offers for and she did not get one. Most were full price or higher than full price but she was in a competitive situation each time and she could not go price-wise to where the property finally sold for. Now those sales are comps and the prices are out of her reach. Now, that activity was in the entry level, first time buyer price range and that is not the case in every price category but it is indicative of the turn in the market and illustrates how the pricing can jump up 10% to 17% on a market "bounce". The number of foreclosures coming on the market has dropped significantly since the beginning of the year and the increased activity in the lower ranges takes them off the market quickly and typically at higher prices than where they are listed. Move up buyers are finally able to get sold and take advantage of the lower prices in the next range up and actually gain some ground. Short sales are still not systemized with every bank but they are with many of them. Unless someone that actually knows how to do them properly handles them, they can be a nightmare and even then with certain banks they are extremely difficult.

All that being said, our pricing stabilized in all but the highest price ranges and actually increased in the lowest levels. In 2004, the highest year, 1503 townhomes were sold in Centreville and in 2007, the lowest year, 648 were sold. In 2009, 1057 were sold. Not the peak but a great number. Likewise in April of '09 the average list price of a townhome coming on the market was $243,600 and the average list price of one that closed that month was $244,535. In December it was $278,085 for the new listings and $259,462 for what sold. The total number of townhomes available January of '08, was 299 by January of '09 that had dropped to 161 and as of the last day of December '09 there were only 39 available.

Likewise for single-family homes, we sold 533; the high water mark for single family home sales in '03 and the low mark was 271 in '06. This year we sold 339, improvement that is for sure and a trend that I hope to see continue in 2010. Because there is such a wide swing in the single family home pricing (200,000-2,000,000) average sale and list prices are not the most accurate indicator. Fact is that in the lower price ranges those prices increased somewhat and in the upper ranges they continued to fall. The good news is the inventory levels. In January of '08 we had 138 single-family homes available, by January of '09 that has dropped to 70 and we closed out '09 on a positive note with only 31 available. All told, 2009 with all of it's trials, tribulations and challenges was a positive year for our market. As 2010 unfolds I will, as usual, keep you informed.