Out on a Limb

Numbers have slowed a bit and I look for that to continue as we move into the fall market. There are pockets of strong activity and multiple offers are out there in some price ranges and on some exceptional properties but it is not the norm at the moment. I do not see us dropping off a precipice but I do see the market cooling a bit. Seasonal factors come into play and they are exacerbated by election year jitters. Consumer confidence which has been surprisingly strong all year will hopefully continue after a brief pause. The numbers have been strong all year and in looking at them there is no reason to see anything but continued improvement. As we move into the new year, no matter which party is in office, there will be concerns as budgetary issues become a topic of conversation. That has a greater impact on our area than anywhere else in the country and this will directly influence consumer confidence locally. Let’s hope there is nothing to be concerned about and that I am looking at the half empty glass. The real truth in my opinion lies in the numbers and we will keep a careful watch on them. I am paying special attention to the townhome market right now as it is primarily first time buyers and investors. I am wary as we have seen inventory increase and contracts drop off in some sectors of that market. Rates are still low, even after a bit of upwards creep over the last few weeks. Rents have crept up over the last few years and now it is cheaper to buy than it is to rent in many cases. Also we have had folks buy homes that sold their homes short just a few years back so lenders are loosening up just a tad. That means that there is a large market of future homeowners not buying their first homes but rather coming back into the market after getting out. Lots of factors out there that can influence our market in the coming months and I will as usual keep you informed.